Report: Gulf States Could Lose $790 Billion in Economic Output by 2030

A report published by Allianz Trade on November 11 projects that Gulf Cooperation Council members could face a cumulative $790 billion loss in economic output from 2026 to 2030, equivalent to GDP 5.9% below the growth trend expected before the conflict. The figure measures an economic output shortfall; it does not consist entirely of direct property damage.

Since the Middle East conflict began in late February 2026, material losses in the Gulf states have been estimated at more than $200 billion. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have put pressure on local economies, with energy and infrastructure particularly affected. According to the report, more than 80 energy facilities in the region have been affected, mainly in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, and about one-third have suffered severe damage. Tourism and real estate have also been hit.

An oil refining facility in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.（VietVance）

Allianz Trade expects Gulf states to adjust how they allocate capital and increase domestic investment through sovereign wealth funds. Additional domestic investment could reach about $120 billion by 2030, while the region’s external surplus is expected to halve. The report estimates that domestic spending on infrastructure and defense could reach $380 billion to $400 billion by 2030, creating about $160 billion in investment opportunities for the private sector and foreign investors. Investment is expected to shift from megaprojects toward essential sectors that strengthen economic resilience and security.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco reported a 34.6% increase in third-quarter net profit as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices. The International Monetary Fund projects that Saudi Arabia’s GDP will fall 3.3% in 2026, a forecast five percentage points below its July projection.

Source: VietVance