VCBS Expects Vietnam Steel Prices to Rebound in Q4 as Iron Ore Faces Pressure

Securities firm VCBS expects Vietnam’s steel prices to recover in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by improving construction demand and progress on large real estate projects, public investment works and social housing projects. However, the firm says the recovery may be limited: steel demand is currently concentrated in large projects, while residential construction demand remains under pressure from household incomes, living costs and interest rates.

Vietnam’s steel prices were flat for most of the third quarter of 2026, then fell from early August to VND 14,210 per kilogram at quarter-end. Competition from imported steel prompted domestic producers to adjust prices to maintain market share. Data compiled by VCBS show that Vietnam’s annual public investment plan grew from VND 431 trillion in 2021 to VND 755 trillion in 2025 and is expected to reach VND 1,069 trillion in 2026.

Chinese steel prices fell slightly at the start of the third quarter, recovered from early August and reached CNY 3,109 per tonne at quarter-end, up 2% from the start of the quarter. VCBS says mounting losses at steel mills and the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector continue to weigh on prices, and expects Chinese steel prices to remain low.

Among raw materials, iron ore was priced at USD 96.6 per tonne at the end of the third quarter of 2026. VCBS expects continued pressure on iron ore prices as Australia and Brazil maintain high export volumes, Guinea’s Simandou mine could add supply, Chinese steel demand remains weak and port inventories stay high. Coke was priced at USD 207.6 per tonne at quarter-end; VCBS expects prices to remain flat in the fourth quarter, with the possibility of stronger Indian import demand balanced by the possibility of increased supply from China and Australia.

Source: VietVance