China's Trade Surplus Reaches $1.04 Trillion in First 10 Months

Chinese customs data show that the country's trade surplus totaled $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, exceeding $1 trillion for the second consecutive year. At the current pace, the full-year surplus could surpass the record $1.2 trillion set in 2025, though that will depend on trade performance through the end of the year.

In October, China's exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier, driven by high-tech products including semiconductors and automobiles; imports rose 41.6%. The monthly trade surplus was $105.3 billion, down from $133.5 billion in September. Dave Chia, an economist at Moody's Analytics, expects electronics and automobiles to continue driving export growth for the rest of the year.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French bank Natixis, said excess capacity and weak domestic demand were prompting Chinese companies to expand exports, while some countries were taking measures to protect domestic manufacturing. She said continued reliance on expanding overseas sales was unsustainable. Dave Chia also warned of risks from European Union trade restrictions; the United States is raising trade barriers and tariffs.

Wang Xin, chairman of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, said U.S. and European trade policies were making it difficult for companies to expand. China and the United States have extended their agreement related to their tariff standoff until January 2027, easing some pressure on Chinese companies. Dave Chia also said that if the artificial intelligence boom slows or enters a period of adjustment, prices and output of chips and electronic equipment could fall, hurting exports.

Source: VietVance