About 80% of Vietnam’s Exports Come from Foreign Invested Firms, Raising Concerns About Domestic Competitiveness
BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực said Vietnam’s imports grew faster than exports in the first 10 months of 2026, but the size of the trade deficit is not his chief concern. Foreign direct investment firms account for about 80% of exports and 73% of imports, while domestic firms need to strengthen their role in import and export supply chains.
At a discussion during the Vietnam Investment Forum 2027, BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực said firms with foreign direct investment account for about 80% of Vietnam’s export value and 73% of its import value. Foreign invested firms generally tend to run trade surpluses, while domestic firms frequently run deficits. He said the competitiveness of domestic firms and their participation in import and export supply chains warrant more attention than the current size of the trade deficit.
BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực.（VietVance）
In the first 10 months of 2026, Vietnam’s imports grew faster than its exports, with production inputs accounting for 94% of imports. Cấn Văn Lực said the goods trade deficit was about $19 billion in the first nine months and narrowed to about $12 billion by the end of October. Including a services trade deficit of about $8 billion, the overall deficit was about $20 billion. He said some of the growth in imports was linked to production and exports: electronics exports rose 71% over the same period, while global investment in artificial intelligence and data centers also drove demand for high tech equipment.
A macroeconomic discussion at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2027.（VietVance）
He also noted that businesses had previously increased imports and inventories to manage risks. Their gradual use of those inventories is another reason the deficit has narrowed. Energy prices also affect import values: Vietnam’s trade deficit in petroleum products was about $7 billion in 2025 and could reach about $10 billion in 2026.
On investment, Vietnam’s total nationwide investment rose about 15% in the first nine months of 2026. State investment increased 17.5%, foreign direct investment 14.5%, and private investment 14%. Cấn Văn Lực said total investment needs to maintain growth of about 15% to achieve double digit economic growth. The next priority is to improve investment efficiency and ensure that growth benefits domestic firms more broadly.
Source: VietVance
