IEA expects global oil market to return to surplus in fourth quarter
The International Energy Agency forecast on November 13 that global oil supply would average 105 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, exceeding expected demand by 1.7 million barrels per day. A faster recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports led it to revise its earlier forecast of a year-end shortage.
In a report released on November 13, the International Energy Agency forecast that the global oil market would return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026. It estimated average supply for the quarter at 105 million barrels per day, 1.7 million barrels per day above expected demand. Its previous forecast had anticipated a supply shortage by year-end. Middle Eastern oil exports recovering faster than demand is the main reason for the revision.
An oil tanker.（VietVance）
The conflict between the United States and Iran had disrupted oil exports from Gulf countries. Although ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz still face the risk of attack, those countries are working to restore shipments, including by turning off oil tankers’ positioning signals as they pass through the strait. The IEA said global supply was showing early signs of exceeding demand again. Brent crude futures were trading at about $95.84 per barrel, according to CNBC data.
OPEC data showed that OPEC+ producers, including allies such as Russia, produced 41.23 million barrels of oil per day in October, up 2.04 million barrels per day from September and equal to 97% of their output before the US–Iran conflict began. JPMorgan estimated last week that the global oil market had already recorded a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
On the demand side, the IEA expects higher oil prices to reduce global oil demand by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, to 102.3 million barrels per day, before it rises by 2 million barrels per day in 2027. Both forecasts are largely unchanged from its previous projections. The agency also expects combined oil output from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026.
As Gulf production continues to recover, the IEA expects global oil supply to rise by 6.6 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 108.1 million barrels per day. The market could see a surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day over the year.
Source: VietVance
