U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, exceeding forecasts
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from September, while core prices rose 0.3%, both above expectations. After the data release, traders continued to expect a Federal Reserve rate increase in December, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point increase rising.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10 that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October from the previous month, above economists’ forecast of 0.3%. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, also above the expected 0.2%. After adjustment, the overall and core Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, in September from the previous month.
Illustration for the U.S. inflation report.（VietVance）
Energy prices rose 0.7% in October from the previous month, including a 1% increase in gasoline prices. Food prices rose 0.5%, and housing costs rose 0.3%. Housing costs accounted for more than 30% of the overall Consumer Price Index increase. Transportation service prices rose 0.8%, new vehicle prices rose 0.2%, and used car and truck prices fell 1.2%.
Before the data was released, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he might support a 0.5 percentage point rate increase in December if the core Consumer Price Index rose by around 0.3%. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed that traders now put the probability of a rate increase at the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting at 100%, with a 90% probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase and a 10% probability of a 0.5 percentage point increase.
After the data was released, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said two more rate increases of 0.25 percentage points each were needed. The Fed held its interest rate in a range of 3.75% to 4% in October. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an annual inflation rate for October because it could not collect enough data for October 2025 during last year’s government shutdown, leaving no basis for a year-over-year comparison.
U.S. consumer spending continued to grow despite inflationary pressure. Commerce Department data showed that retail sales rose 0.8% in September from the previous month, above analysts’ forecasts of 0.3% to 0.4%. An October survey by the National Federation of Independent Business found that 37% of responding businesses planned to raise prices over the next three months, the highest share since July 2022.
Source: VietVance
