Vietnamese Economist Forecasts 9.5%–9.7% GDP Growth in 2026

At the Vietnam Investment Forum 2027 on November 12, BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực said positive signals on the supply and demand sides, as well as from new growth drivers, indicated that Vietnam had entered a new growth cycle. His research team forecasts GDP growth of 9.5% to 9.7% in 2026, following 8% growth in 2025. However, with new growth drivers still needing time to take effect, achieving double-digit growth in 2026 remains difficult.

The Vietnam Investment Forum 2027 on November 12.（VietVance）

Cấn Văn Lực said that in the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s agricultural sector grew 4.2%, industry and construction grew 10.2%, and services grew about 9.3% to 9.4%. Total investment across the economy rose about 15% over the same period, with public investment, foreign direct investment and private investment increasing 17.5%, 14.5% and 14%, respectively. He said investment growth had broadly reached the level his research team calculated was needed for double-digit economic growth, but consumption growth would need to rise from about 8.3% to 8.4% in the first nine months to 9% to 9.5%.

BIDV Chief Economist Cấn Văn Lực.（VietVance）

On trade, Cấn Văn Lực said Vietnam’s goods trade deficit was about US$19 billion in the first nine months of 2026 and had narrowed to about US$12 billion by the end of October. Including a services trade deficit of about US$8 billion, the combined deficit was about US$20 billion. He said growth in electronics exports, businesses building inventories in advance and rising energy prices had affected the trade figures. He also noted that domestic businesses remained relatively weak competitors.

Cấn Văn Lực forecasts inflation of 4.5% to 4.7% in 2026 and about 4.5% in 2027. He also flagged risks involving financial system liquidity, the real estate market and the external environment, and forecast that GDP growth could reach about 10% in 2027.

Nguyễn Việt Anh, TPBank’s deputy CEO in charge of strategy and bank management, said business expansion remained uneven: public investment and foreign direct investment expanded rapidly in 2026, while small and medium-sized private enterprises had yet to show clear improvement. He said 2027 would be a key year for determining whether Vietnam had truly entered a new growth cycle.

TPBank Deputy CEO Nguyễn Việt Anh.（VietVance）

Source: VietVance