Economist: Vietnam’s 2026 growth could reach 9.5%–9.7%

Speaking at the Vietnam Invest Forum 2027 on November 12, economist Cấn Văn Lực forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 9.5%–9.7% in 2026 and potentially hit 10% in 2027. He said a growth target close to double digits would bring pressure and require risks to be managed while growth is pursued.

Cấn Văn Lực speaks at the Vietnam Invest Forum 2027 on November 12.（VietVance）

On the supply side, Vietnam’s agriculture sector grew 4.2% in the first nine months of 2026, while industry and construction grew by more than 10%. On the demand side, total investment across society rose about 15% over the same period, including increases of 17.5% in government investment, 14.5% in foreign direct investment and 14% in private investment. Final consumption grew 8.3%–8.4%; Cấn Văn Lực said consumption growth would need to rise further to support a higher growth target.

The main risks identified by Cấn Văn Lực include inflation, liquidity pressure in the financial system, a slow recovery in the property market and external uncertainty. He forecasts inflation of 4.5%–4.7% in 2026 and about 4.5% in 2027. He said Vietnam’s policy interest rate is 4.5%, and sharply lowering deposit rates could cause funds to leave the banking system, making rapid, across-the-board interest rate cuts difficult. Banks’ net interest margin has also narrowed from 3% at the end of 2025 to 2.5% now.

A discussion session at the Vietnam Invest Forum 2027.（VietVance）

To lower financing costs, Cấn Văn Lực called for a phased approach, supported by foreign exchange swaps, faster public investment disbursement, prompt value-added tax refunds and progress on stalled property and infrastructure projects. He also said small and medium-sized enterprises need to improve financial transparency and management, and use medium- and long-term financing channels such as financial leasing. Policy support and improvements by businesses need to work together.

Source: VietVance