HoSE Companies’ Fourth-Quarter Profits Forecast to Rise 24%
Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) forecasts that after-tax profits of companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange will rise about 24% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, led by nonfinancial companies and insurers. Third-quarter after-tax profits rose 50.1%, but trading activity continued to shrink and foreign investors were net sellers for three consecutive months.
Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) expects after-tax profits of companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) to rise about 24% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven mainly by nonfinancial companies and the insurance sector. The banking sector is expected to maintain a high and steady rate of profit growth.
Listed companies’ profits are forecast to rise in the fourth quarter of 2026, with nonfinancial companies among the main drivers.（VietVance）
The forecast follows strong earnings growth in the third quarter. HoSE-listed companies’ total revenue rose 33% year on year, after-tax profits increased 50.1%, and the after-tax profit margin reached 13.93%. Performance varied by sector: bank profits were relatively stable, while real estate recorded growth for several consecutive quarters but relied heavily on contributions from VHM. Securities firms’ third-quarter after-tax profits fell 42.9% year on year to VND 8.6 trillion, mainly because proprietary trading and brokerage weakened.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, real estate earnings are expected to remain strong, although profit growth may slow because of a high comparison base in the same period of 2025. Consumer goods and retail companies are expected to benefit from relatively high selling prices and a low comparison base; profit growth at thermal power companies is linked to higher electricity output, a high share of contracted power output, and favorable prices in the competitive electricity generation market. Upstream and midstream oil and gas companies were affected by substantial expenses in the third quarter, while workloads and fee rates are seen as potential growth drivers in the fourth quarter.
Earnings growth has yet to translate into stronger inflows to the stock market. In the three months through October 30, Vietnam’s VN-Index rose only about 0.3% from the end of July. HoSE’s average daily matched trading value fell to VND 12.38 trillion in October, its lowest level since the start of 2025; foreign investors were net sellers for three consecutive months, selling more than VND 24 trillion on a net basis in October. At the end of the third quarter, outstanding margin loans across the market stood at about VND 410 trillion, down 7% from their second-quarter peak.
Source: VietVance
