MBS Research Chief: Vietnam’s Stock Market May Improve in the Second Half of 2027
At a November 12 forum, MBS head of research Trần Thị Khánh Hiền said Vietnam’s stock market lacks fresh earnings growth expectations and a sufficient margin of safety relative to interest rates. She expects difficulties to persist through at least the first half of 2027, with conditions potentially improving in the second half as policy measures take effect and foreign capital inflows recover.
At a Vietnam Investment Forum 2027 discussion held on November 12, 2026, MBS head of research Trần Thị Khánh Hiền said difficulties in Vietnam’s stock market could persist until at least the first half of 2027. She said investors have been reluctant to commit funds mainly because there are no fresh earnings growth expectations for the coming quarters and current valuations offer an insufficient margin of safety relative to interest rates.
MBS head of research Trần Thị Khánh Hiền.（VietVance）
She noted that marketwide profits grew by about 35% in the first nine months of 2026, but expectations of that growth had already been reflected in share prices. Vingroup accounted for about half of the marketwide profit increase over the same period; excluding the group, profits at other companies grew by about 20% to 22%. She expects marketwide profit growth to slow to 20% to 22% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and further to about 12% to 15% in 2027 because of the high base in the previous year. Rising financing, raw material and transport costs are additional pressures ahead.
On valuations, she said the marketwide price-to-earnings ratio is about 11 to 12 times, corresponding to an earnings yield of about 8% to 9%. Relative to current interest rates, that does not provide an attractive enough risk premium. She recommended watching interest rates and new capital inflows: even a decline of only about 30 to 50 basis points in interest rates in 2027 could lift investor sentiment, while foreign inflows could improve if international funds adjust their capital allocations.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2027, she expects easing external pressures, domestic foreign-exchange market measures gradually taking effect, and increased public investment to potentially improve the investment environment. She also cited the merger of the stock exchanges and the anticipated introduction of a central counterparty mechanism in 2027, saying these changes could create conditions for new investment products and capital inflows. She cautioned, however, that support for the index from some large-cap stocks does not mean all stocks have the same potential to rise.
Source: VietVance
