US Election Impact May Be Short-Lived as Vietnam’s Stock Market Focuses on Interest Rates and Earnings
VnDirect says the US midterm elections have mainly given Vietnamese stocks a short-term boost in investor sentiment. The market’s next moves will depend more on oil prices, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates and corporate earnings, while changes in US trade policy remain a risk for Vietnamese exporters.
VnDirect says the direct impact of the 2026 US midterm elections on Vietnam’s stock market has been mainly to lift investor sentiment, with little prospect of an immediate change in current US trade policy. The VN-Index rose 1.97% on November 4, but whether stocks can sustain their gains still depends on fundamentals such as inflation, interest rates and corporate earnings.
The effect of US midterm election sentiment on the VN-Index and the market’s next drivers.（VietVance）
The firm’s report, updated on November 5, shows that the Democrats won majorities in both chambers of the US Congress, but their 54 Senate seats are insufficient to override a presidential veto. The report says increased congressional oversight could prompt the US administration to adjust some measures, while the risks of additional tariffs, origin checks and tighter oversight of transshipment still warrant attention.
The US is an important export market for Vietnam. In the first 10 months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports to the US reached $159.4 billion, up 26.3% year on year and accounting for about 32% of its total exports over the period. The report notes that US Section 301 tariffs related to forced labor stand at 12.5%, while two other Section 301 investigations have yet to reach conclusions. Policy changes could affect orders and costs for Vietnamese exporters.
Lower oil prices help ease cost and inflation pressures: Brent crude fell from $112.1 a barrel on October 23 to about $93 a barrel on November 5. A weaker US dollar has also eased pressure on Vietnam’s exchange rate; however, that risk could return if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its December 9 meeting. The State Bank of Vietnam has instructed credit institutions to lower certain deposit rates and lending rates for priority sectors. VnDirect says these are targeted measures and do not yet signal broad monetary easing.
On the technical outlook, VnDirect expects the VN-Index to consolidate in the 1,700–1,800-point range, with important support at 1,690–1,700 points and notable resistance at 1,800 points. The report says the index needs to close above 1,800 points on higher trading volume to confirm an improving trend. Until then, investors should focus on corporate fundamentals and keep short-term expectations in check.
Source: VietVance
